Interactive market model

What Happens to Paris Apartment Prices if Rates Move?

Mortgage rate (%)

Unemployment (%)

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Transaction price +0.0% Transaction volume +0.0% Rent (long run) +0.0% Price (long run) +0.0%

DiPasquale–Wheaton: which quadrant absorbs the shock

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Transaction market: who moved — buyers or sellers

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Case study

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DiPasquale–Wheaton: where the shock landed

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Transaction market: how the curves moved

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Market history & outlook

Paris prices and volumes

Ten years of history plus a model-based forecast band.

Prices & forecast

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Transaction volumes

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Market structure

Where the market trades

Go deeper

The full quarterly report

Everything above plus borrowing-capacity & affordability analysis, neighborhood breakdowns (price, volumes, $/m²), model diagnostics, rent-vs-buy, supply pipeline, and demographics — as a PDF, refreshed quarterly.

Single market

€79

Paris full report (PDF)
Market history, neighborhood tables & maps
Model explanation & case study

Draft pricing — subject to change.

Both markets

€129

Paris + San Francisco reports
Cross-market comparison annex
Quarterly refresh discount

Corporate license & consulting — contact page later.

Trust, but verify

Methodology & model fit

A structural demand/supply system estimated on 2001–2025 quarterly data, read jointly with the DiPasquale–Wheaton four-quadrant framework: the curves say who moved in the transaction market, the quadrants say which market — space, asset, or construction — absorbs the shock in the long run. Below, how well the model tracks reality. The full equations, data notes and robustness tests are included in the report.

Interactive market model — Food & Drink

What Happens to UK Beer if Duty or the Weather Moves?

Duty change (%)

Summer temperature anomaly (°C)

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Consumer beer price +0.0% Beer volume +0.0% Duty revenue +0.0% Largest regional swing —

Demand curve & flat supply: who moves

Brewing is a constant-cost industry, so supply is a flat line at cost + duty + margin: duty shifts it vertically (pass-through estimated from HMRC receipts), temperature shifts the demand curve. Axes indexed, baseline = 100.

Where the pints go: regional demand under your scenario

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Case study

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Demand & supply: how the curves moved

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What moved the volume

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Market history

UK beer clearances — actual vs model

Monthly duty clearances (HMRC), 1999 to today, against the estimated demand model. Shaded windows are the episodes that made the market.

Actual vs model — with the episodes that made the market

Log monthly clearances (pure-alcohol basis; regimes spliced at Aug 2023 — the visible gap). Hover the shaded windows for the story; the model uses price, temperature, activity, seasonality and structural trend.

The beer thermometer: demand vs temperature

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Trust, but verify

How our estimate compares

Beer demand has been measured many times. Almost all of those estimates come from household surveys; ours comes from the volumes HMRC actually released for duty. Here is where that puts us, and why.

Our beer price elasticity vs the literature

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Reading the gap

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How the model is identified

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Sources: HMRC (Alcohol Bulletin — duty clearances and receipts); ONS (consumer prices, retail sales index, ITL1 boundaries); Met Office (Central England Temperature and HadUK-Grid regional series); Defra (Family Food). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Go deeper

The beer report

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UK beer report

TBC

In development — pricing to follow.

Interactive market model — Food & Drink

What Happens to UK Salad Prices When the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

A British tomato or cucumber is grown in a gas-heated glasshouse, and a fifth of the world's LNG normally sails through Hormuz. Since the strait closed on 28 February 2026, GB gas has repriced — and the gas is in the vegetable. Pick a vegetable, slide between periods, and watch the gas cost inside it.

FROM THE STRAIT TO THE PLATE

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Before closure
Feb 2026 Peak
25 Jul Now
2 Aug

Sector benchmarks: ~6 kWh of gas per kg of tomatoes, ~4.5 kWh per kg of cucumbers (~1.6 kWh per cucumber), priced at the GB day-ahead gas price (SAP). Dashed lines mark the before / peak / now levels. Excludes lighting electricity — a floor.

The mechanism

The gas inside a kilo — and inside a grower's budget

Pence of gas embedded in a kilo

Embedded gas at the GB day-ahead price: tomatoes 16p per kg before the closure, 25p since, 32p at the July peak. One 350g cucumber: 4.3p → 6.5p of gas.

What goes into a UK glasshouse crop

Indicative pre-crisis cost shares (industry statements, Dutch cost studies); only the energy block is repriced at observed gas. The stack rises ~9% and energy's share climbs from 18 towards the "30% of costs" growers warned about in 2022.

Upstream

The Strait of Hormuz and UK energy prices

Seven stable years, then a cliff: tanker transits collapsed from ~42 a day to near zero when the strait closed, and every UK energy price repriced off the same shock.

Tanker transits through Hormuz

IMF PortWatch AIS transit calls, 7-day average. Shaded: the June 2025 twelve-day war (prices spiked, ships kept sailing) and the 2026 closure (they didn't). AIS undercounts when transponders go dark — near-zero is an order of magnitude.

UK energy prices, indexed to February 2026

Brent peaked +95%, GB gas +93% (and still ~+70% — Qatar is a fifth of global LNG), day-ahead power +157%: the power market prices like a ~50%-efficient gas turbine, so it amplifies gas.

Market history

Nine seasons of tomatoes and cucumbers

Average home-grown wholesale price over the same weeks (1–32) of each year, with the embedded gas as the orange base of every bar. The gas share breathes with each energy crisis: 4p in cheap-gas 2020, 41p in 2022, 23p in 2026 — on a season that started six-plus weeks late (cucumbers), because growers sat out the dearest heating months.

Tomatoes — season average price and the gas inside it

Defra weekly wholesale prices of home-grown produce (no winter observations: the UK glasshouse crop is only marketed roughly March–November).

Cucumbers — season average price and the gas inside it

Same construction. 2026 cucumber marketing began in week 12 (mid-March) versus week 2–9 in every prior year.

Trust, but verify

Where the gas signature stops

HMRC customs data traces how far the shock travels. Dutch produce — gas-heated — reprices at the UK border. Spanish produce is grown unheated, yet reprices too: it sells into the same European market, and when dear gas cuts Dutch supply, every seller gets the higher price (the mechanism behind Britain's February-2023 salad rationing). Moroccan tomatoes, outside the European energy system, show no response — the placebo. Blended, imports move only ~2–3%: they buffer UK consumers. From the same data: import demand elasticities ≈ −0.4 (tomatoes) and −0.3 (cucumbers), and UK salad demand rises ~1.5% per °C of warm-weather anomaly.

Tomatoes — border-price response to a gas doubling

Monthly unit values by origin on GB gas, 2019–2026, 95% intervals.

Cucumbers — border-price response to a gas doubling

Spain is the marginal winter supplier, so it carries the equilibrium repricing; the Dutch estimate is noisier (smaller trade in winter months).

Scenario

What would Iran's toll cost your salad?

Iran's reopening plan would charge vessels 5–7% of cargo value (Oman floated 3%). Assume every link passes the fee on in full: fee → Qatari LNG → GB gas → glasshouse → shelf. Upper bound (Hormuz LNG prices the European gas margin): a 7% toll adds ~2p to a kilo of tomatoes and about half a penny to a cucumber. If Qatari cargoes just blend into the mix (~6% of GB supply), it is twenty times smaller. The catch that flips the sign: the toll is the price of reopening — at the reopened gas floor the gas inside a kilo of tomatoes falls ~11p from today, landing ~1p above pre-crisis.

*Net of reopening = embedded gas at the reopened floor (February price × (1 + toll)) minus today's crisis level. Food is VAT-zero-rated, so no tax multiplier.

Sources: IMF PortWatch (chokepoint transit calls); ONS & National Gas (System Average Price of gas); Elexon (market index data); FRED/EIA (Brent); Defra (weekly wholesale prices of home-grown horticultural produce); HMRC (uktradeinfo Overseas Trade Statistics); Met Office (Central England Temperature); DESNZ (weekly road fuel prices). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Glasshouse energy benchmarks: WUR/KWIN sector figures via Kaiser et al. (2024); EECA covered-crops benchmarking.

What Happens to Paris Apartment Prices if Rates Move?

DiPasquale–Wheaton: which quadrant absorbs the shock

Transaction market: who moved — buyers or sellers

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DiPasquale–Wheaton: where the shock landed

Transaction market: how the curves moved

Paris prices and volumes

Prices & forecast

Transaction volumes

Where the market trades

Prices — YoY change by area

Sales — YoY change by area

Price distribution

Neighborhood map — YoY price change

The full quarterly report

Single market

Both markets

Methodology & model fit

Actual vs model-implied — sales

Actual vs model-implied — real price

Actual vs fitted — Paris

What Happens to UK Beer if Duty or the Weather Moves?

Demand curve & flat supply: who moves

Where the pints go: regional demand under your scenario

…

Demand & supply: how the curves moved

What moved the volume

UK beer clearances — actual vs model

Actual vs model — with the episodes that made the market

The beer thermometer: demand vs temperature

How our estimate compares

Our beer price elasticity vs the literature

Reading the gap

How the model is identified

The beer report

UK beer report

What Happens to UK Salad Prices When the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

The gas inside a kilo — and inside a grower's budget

Pence of gas embedded in a kilo

What goes into a UK glasshouse crop

The Strait of Hormuz and UK energy prices

Tanker transits through Hormuz

UK energy prices, indexed to February 2026

Nine seasons of tomatoes and cucumbers

Tomatoes — season average price and the gas inside it

Cucumbers — season average price and the gas inside it

Where the gas signature stops

Tomatoes — border-price response to a gas doubling

Cucumbers — border-price response to a gas doubling

What would Iran's toll cost your salad?