Published Reports
Reports
Econometric studies built on the models behind the Lab. Read online or download the PDF.
Food & Drink · United Kingdom · October 2026
The Salad Market Responds to the Strait of Hormuz Closure
The Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28, 2026, and the GB gas price rose to 142% above its February level. The report follows the shock into UK cucumber and tomato prices: import demand is inelastic, import supply is flat, and the market adjusted almost entirely through price, with real import prices up 7.3% and 6.8% while volumes did not fall. The border repriced in weeks; the home glasshouse, priced annually, reprices next season.
Housing · France · October 2026
Paris and Nice Housing Demand and Supply Decomposed Through the 2022 Credit Shock
Between late 2021 and late 2023 the rate on a new French home loan rose from 1.12% to 3.52% and borrowing capacity fell by a fifth. Paris apartment prices fell 8% and Nice prices rose 7%, while both cities lost about a quarter of their sales. The report uses an estimated demand and supply model, a four-quadrant valuation model and a panel of 947 local markets to break the shock into its parts: the same loss of leveraged buyers in both cities, and a price outcome decided by who remained.
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